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Chapter 8
Conventional Terrorism
All the weapons of mass destruction described thus far have potential to wreck awesome destruction if used during a terror attack on the United States. As I noted in earlier chapters, however, each of these weapons present certain difficulties in acquisition and use that might cause terrorists to choose alternative means for their operations. Almost all forms of WMD require a high level of technical competency to manufacture, transport, and disseminate effectively, thereby making it difficult for many terror organizations with limited scientific and logistical support to use them in a manner that would trigger the desired mass injury and hysteria. WMD are also extremely expensive, making them unattractive to terror groups with limited financial means. Finally, some terror groups may fear that using WMD in an attack may invite retaliation in kind, and as most western countries have large stockpiles of WMD in the form of nuclear weapons, any retaliatory strike would be much greater in severity than the original attack.
To offset the drawbacks of using WMD and yet still produce attacks with similar consequences, some experts believe that terrorists might choose to conduct massive coordinated attacks on American soil using conventional weapons. Such attacks might involve suicide bombers launched against critical government targets, attacks on "soft targets" like public markets or malls, attacks on public transportation systems such as planes, trains, or buses, or even assaults against schools and daycare centers. Though a single attack on any of these targets would be a terrible tragedy, a series of coordinated attacks executed within a short period of time could produce dramatic and far-reaching consequences.
Professor Walid Phares, a noted expert on the Middle East and Islamic terrorism, has described in his book, Future Jihad: Terrorist Strategies against America, a particularly horrifying form of massive coordinated conventional attacks that might take place in the United States. In the scenario presented by Phares, massive conventional attacks would be conducted by Islamic terrorists in a series of waves within a few short days.
During the initial waves, Phares believes these attacks would concentrate on government and military targets in order to sow confusion within the government's security apparatus and to stop any effective response before it could get started. Other targets in the early waves of such an attack would include nuclear sites, skyscrapers in major cities, amusement parks such as Disney world, seaports, and airports. Later waves of the attack would target daycare centers, schools, and universities. These types of attacks agains "soft" targets would potentially force many emergency workers and law enforcement personnel to leave their duty posts to see to the welfare of their own children. Phares believes these waves might also include cyber attacks against U.S. government and financial computer systems, resulting in even further confusion among law enforcement and military efforts to combat ongoing attacks. The results would be devastating to the American economy. The final phase in professor Phares' scenario envisions terrorists with small arms and hand grenades attacking government and law enforcement targets and acting as snipers targeting civilians to tie down rescue and recovery efforts.
The scenario presented in Future Jihad: Terrorist Strategies against America envisions a well-coordinated attack perpetrated by hundreds of terrorists during a one- or two-day period. The attacks in this scenario would be designed to quickly bring the U.S. to its knees in a relatively short period of time. Attacks taking this form would severely hamper any efforts by the government to conduct rescue and recovery efforts because most government resources would initially be devoted to combating ongoing terrorist violence.
Coordinated attacks could take other forms as well, such as a drawn-out campaign designed to slowly erode public confidence in the government's ability to protect American citizens from terrorist attack and harm our economy through fear and intimidation.
An example of such a strategy can be found in Israel's experience with Palestinian terror groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the PLO. Over the years, Israel has endured continued attacks by Palestinian homicide-bombers on public transportation systems, markets, malls, and restaurants. These attacks have killed thousands of innocent civilians. Attacks such as these occurring in the United States could severely undermine our economy; the bloodshed and chaos, would deter many people from visiting shopping malls and other stores for fear of being killed. (The significant reluctance by Americans to fly after 9-11 offers a good recent example of how successful terror attacks directly affect civilian behavior.) Attacks on public transportation or transportation infrastructure systems could severely limit commerce by causing many people to stay at home while the threat continued and by interrupting commercial supply chain activity. One of the most horrifying forms of conventional terror attacks target daycare centers, schools, and universities. Islamic radicals have already shown a willingness to engage in these sorts of cowardly and barbaric attacks. The best example was a well-planned assault against a grade school in the small Russian town of Beslan in 2004. The first day of classes in most Russian schools is known as the "Day of Knowledge," a day when children dress in their finest clothes and, accompanied by their parents, participate in a number of education-related activities to celebrate the beginning of a new school year. On September 1, 2004, nearly three dozen Chechnyian Islamic terrorists stormed School Number One in the town of Beslan during the day of knowledge celebrations. The offensive took hostage more than 1,300 children hostage, along with a number of parents, teachers, and school administrators. The terrorists killed several administrators and police officers during the initial takeover of the school and, once they gained control of the campus, crowded all the hostages into a small gymnasium. Once all the hostages were inside the gymnasium, the hostage takers methodically executed approximately 20 adult males. This was done in front of the terrified children. The bloody bodies were thrown out the exits....
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